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CONFOEDERATIO, RESEARCH DIVISION (CRD)

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Working Paper·Project Polaris/1. Entire Country·Migration Period (1.0)LatestSynthetic·7 November 2026

Migration Period Demography and Settlement across Russia

A Regional Literature Review of Archaeological Cultures, Settlements, and Population from the Migration Period to 1900AD.

Aust Kätzchen

This working paper reviews external Russian and international archaeological, osteological, palynological, and historical-demographic scholarship to estimate regional populations and settlement patterns across the territories of modern Russia during the Migration Period (Epokha Velikogo pereseleniya narodov, c. 250-750AD), placed within a long-run comparative series extending from 100AD to the First All-Russian Imperial Census of 1897 (1900AD). Drawing on excavated house-floor areas, hillfort and open village dimensions, cremation and inhumation cemetery burial counts, and river-basin survey inventories across six major geographical regions, we reconstruct consistent regional population series. Across the territories of modern Russia, total population rose from 2,05 M (1,60-2,54 M) in 100AD to a Late Roman peak of 2,56 M (2,00-3,17 M) around 350AD, declined to 2,28 M (1,78-2,83 M) by 450AD following the Hunnic invasion and the collapse of the eastern Chernyakhov and Late Sarmatian settlement networks, and recovered after the 536-542AD climatic downturn (2,49 M in 550AD) to reach 3,13 M (2,44-3,88 M) by 700AD and 4,50 M (3,51-5,58 M) by 900AD. Notably, the Migration Period did not bring uniform depopulation across Russia, but rather a major geographical shift: populations in the open steppe and southern forest-steppe fell by 28-44% between 350AD and 450AD, whereas the Middle Volga (Imenkovo), the Volga-Oka and northwestern forest zone (Late Dyakovo, Moshchiny, Ryazan-Oka, Pskov Long Barrows), the Kama-Cis-Ural basin (Bakhmutino, Turaevo, Lomovatovo, Polom), and the North Caucasian terraced mountain valleys (Alanian Kislovodsk and Derbent-Palasa-Syrt) experienced steady settlement expansion and agricultural growth [1][2][3][4]. Over the subsequent millennium, agricultural colonisation, urban growth, and early modern agrarian settlement carried the population within the boundaries of modern Russia to 6,60 M in 1200AD, 9,10 M in 1500AD, 13,80 M in 1700AD, 28,10 M in 1800AD, and 67,50 M by 1900AD [5][6][7][8]. ```{r fig1-md-only, results='asis'} if (!knitr::is_latex_output() && !isTRUE(getOption("intellte.dom_mode", FALSE))) { render_figure_template( "figures/fig1_migration_period_cultures_map.png", list( caption = "Migration Period Archaeological Cultures, River Basins, Major Movements, and Excavated Sites across Russia (c. 250-750AD).", label = "fig:hero-map", span_columns = TRUE ) ) } ```

Working Paper·Velkscala·1.0LatestSynthetic·28 October 2026

Velkscala 1.0

Empirical Validation of Global Gridded Paleodemographics and Contemporary Vital Flows from 10000BC to the Present.

Vis Tacitus and Aust Kätzchen

Velkscala 1.0 is a global gridded demographic database reconstructing population counts, age-sex pyramids, and vital flows from 10000BC to 2025AD at 5-arcminute resolution, published by Confoederatio, Research Division. Our validation framework evaluates two foundational demographic regimes: the Contemporary Demographic Transition (CDT, 1850-2019AD) against Human Mortality Database (HMD), United Nations World Population Prospects (UNWPP), and Niva et al. (Kummu) subnational vital records; and the Neolithic Demographic Transition (NDT, 10000BC-1000AD) across five agricultural regions and 19 subnational geocodes against Bocquet-Appel paleodemographic priors. Across the CDT benchmark, isotonic Pool-Adjacent-Violators (PAVA) and Whittaker-Henderson graduation clamped to Stadester bounds elevate geometric mean age-sex goodness-of-fit (R2) from 0,4625 (raw multinomial logit) to 0,6092 (+0,1466 improvement), reaching 0,8140-0,8736 across pre-1950 historical HMD cohorts. Across the NDT domain, raster cohort buffers confirm spatially endogenous age-structure differentiation across all 19 tracked geocodes and capture both the Bocquet-Appel immature juvenile proportion surge (p(5-19)/p(5+)) and the European Linearbandkeramik (LBK) boom-and-bust cycle.

Confoederatio, Research Division (CRD)